We hope everyone weathered the weekend’s volatility with minimal damage and is ready to get back to work.

Right now, all eyes are on the Middle East — particularly the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which 20% of global oil and 35% of liquefied natural gas flows. Iran has openly threatened to block it.

But is it really that simple? Let’s unpack it.

---

Can Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? Technically — yes. Strategically — unlikely.

🔻 First, it would hit Iran itself.
The country exports most of its oil through that same strait. Crude is already one of its only sources of foreign income, and Iran is already heavily sanctioned. A blockade would be self-destructive.

🔻 Second, it would damage its own allies.
Countries like Qatar, China, India, and Turkey rely on this route for either importing energy or exporting resources. For Qatar, it’s a vital artery — blocking it would strain regional alliances.

🔻 Third, it would hand the U.S. and Israel a golden excuse.
Up until now, most strikes have targeted Iran’s nuclear assets. But this move could justify direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure — a death blow to Iran’s economy.

---

So what’s the most likely scenario?

Partial disruption.
A few tankers turned away, an uptick in insurance premiums, and some sharp headlines — enough to trigger a short-term spike in oil and market volatility, but not a full-blown global crisis.

This is already visible in price action:
– Brent crude opened only +4%, far below doomsday predictions
– No stock market meltdown — in fact, many dips are getting bought back

---

📌 Bottom line:
Markets are clearly not pricing in a prolonged war — at least not yet.

The core question now is: How long will the escalation last?
No one knows for sure. But as always, volatility means opportunity.

Stay alert, stay informed — and if you’re positioned right, you might just turn fear into profit.