But Trump’s strategy is shifting — pressure, then deals

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📊 The Numbers:

• $16.3 billion in customs revenue — the highest monthly total in U.S. history
• +86% increase from March ($8.75B)
• $63.3 billion YTD — up $15.4B vs. same period in 2024

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🧾 What Happened?

In early April, the Trump administration implemented:

✅ A 10% universal tariff on all imports (excluding Canada & Mexico)
✅ Up to 145% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese and other targeted goods
✅ Elimination of the de minimis rule for Chinese shipments — impacting Shein, Temu, and other low-cost importers

Result: a huge short-term cash surge, but…

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🧠 Strategic Shift in Motion

Trump’s tariff blitz was never meant to last forever.

The White House now recognizes that overextended tariffs risk long-term economic drag — supply chain disruption, higher consumer prices, and slower growth.

👉 That’s why we’re seeing a pivot toward deals:

• 🇨🇳 U.S.–China 90-day tariff rollback (announced May 12)
• 🇬🇧 U.S.–UK trade agreement with targeted relief
• 🇪🇺 De-escalation talks to avoid retaliatory EU tariffs (€95B threat)

The strategy is clear:
Apply pressure to negotiate — then de-escalate to protect the economy and markets.

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📉 Key Risks:

• Recession signals rising (GDP turned negative)
• Inflation on consumer goods due to import costs
• Budget deficit still high despite April surplus

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📈 What Investors Should Watch:

✅ Trade-related equities and logistics plays
✅ U.S.–China trade deal terms (next 90 days are key)
✅ Impact on USD, Treasuries, and U.S. corporate margins

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