Jerome Powell delivered a clear message:
The Fed isn’t ready to pivot. In fact, it might tighten further.
Inflation, tariffs, and Trump’s economic impact are reshaping U.S. policy — and crypto is quietly becoming part of the narrative.

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🕰 The Fed Is Waiting — And So Is the Market

“We are in a wait-and-see mode. We need clarity.”

The Fed wants more data before making any move. Growth is slowing, but not collapsing. Uncertainty is everywhere, especially around:

– Trade policy
– Fiscal trajectory
– Global energy and supply chains

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🔥 Inflation, Tariffs, and Trump: The Pressure Returns

“Tariffs could reignite inflation and hurt growth.”

Powell acknowledged the risk of a “stagflation-lite” scenario:

– Supply chains are fragile
– China is buying oil from Canada instead of the U.S.
– Business confidence is falling
– Companies are frontloading imports

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⚖️ The Double Mandate: Heading for Conflict

“We may reach a point where inflation and employment goals start to diverge.”

This is critical. If inflation ticks back up — employment will take the hit.
For now, Powell says the labor market is “balanced” — but how long will that last?

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💣 Macro Outlook: Weak Growth, Hidden Volatility

– GDP growth has slowed
– Supply chain issues could last “for years”
– Auto industry especially vulnerable
– Immigration pullback may worsen labor shortages

“The market is processing a historically unique set of shocks.”

The Fed is cautious not to overreact — but also knows it may have to act aggressively again.

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💰 Balance Sheet, QT, and Dollar Liquidity

– Balance sheet reduction continues (QT)
– Fed is not ready to pause
– But stands ready to “provide dollar liquidity globally if needed”

Translation: they’ll defend the system — and the dollar — at all costs.

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🔐 Crypto: Not Ignored Anymore

“Crypto is growing in popularity.”
“A legal framework for stablecoins makes sense.”
“We must ease restrictions — without weakening bank safety.”

For the first time, the Fed isn’t dismissing crypto — it’s integrating it.

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🧠 Final Take

The Fed will not cut rates in 2025 unless the economy worsens significantly.
In fact — it might raise rates again if inflation picks up.

📌 QT continues
📌 Tariffs complicate the inflation outlook
📌 Bitcoin is no longer a side note — it’s quietly entering the conversation

The world is shifting.
And the Fed — slowly, carefully — is shifting with it.